A "Special relationship" in the Indo-Pacific region in a new era, what changes?’

26 January 2025, ASEAN-UK YLI Thoughts by Vanndasambath Chhuon

Donald J. Trump entered the White House only a week ago, accompanied by numerous unexpected documents. Immediately after the inaugural, the UK government expressed its congratulations to its “special relationship” ally. However, some rumours have emerged concerning the US's commitment to its global outlook, and the pledge to Make America Great Again has also become a headache for its closest friend, the UK.

In this article, we will discuss what these changes mean for the new era in the Indo-Pacific for both the US and the UK.

Former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill coined the term "special relationship" in 1944. It describes the close alliance between the US and the UK that they shared throughout the 20th and 21st centuries.

The two nations still use this term to define their relationship today, but the further this energy progresses, the more questions it raises. The unparalleled dynamics of Trump's new administration have prompted the UK to adopt a constructive stance to keep pace with the US in its global standing.

Indo-Pacific in the New Era Under Trump Mean for UK

Uncertainty may arise regarding Trump's security vacuum in the Indo-Pacific and for friends in this region, namely Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, and, focusing on this article, the United Kingdom. Although the UK may not be the nation directly affected by Trump's changes in foreign policy towards the Indo-Pacific, Global Britain's Indo-Pacific Tilt may appear challenging to realise. Even though the UK’s pivotal role in the Indo-Pacific does not explicitly mention the term “US" in the policy, neglecting agreements like the Paris Climate Agreement, along with others such as WHO, could adversely affect the UK’s standing, security, and most importantly, its operational practices. The UK's options might dwindle, requiring a recalibration of its approach toward managing relations with China.

Trump's new foreign policy may prioritise what the US believes is best and potentially compel his allies to follow, demand, or face consequences.

Will AUKUS remain intact under Trump? This question also underscores the involvement of the UK and Australia in shaping their security policies regarding regional chokepoints like the South China Sea. Increased equality in contributions and pressure in the region could make the other two partners restless and likely give rise to numerous challenges ahead. The US's aggressive strategy of imposing tariffs on China may pose difficulties for its allies.

This new era also requires the UK to reassess its increasing defence spending, as Starmer’s plan is to allocate 2.5% of national income and adopt policies that align with Trump's strategic objectives. Under the US security umbrella, the UK may need to enhance its contribution and either follow the US or consider drawing closer to the EU.

China on the go, UK on the role

The British need to ensure that partnering with the US does not mean antagonising China, especially as China becomes the sole player in many global institutions, particularly in health and climate change. The UK now has the opportunity to enhance its relations with China following the recent visit of FDCO Secretary David Lammy to Beijing in October, which was succeeded by Angela Rayner's pledge regarding the "super-embassy size in the UK."

At the G20, when Keir Starmer met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in November and vowed to establish a "new pragmatic relationship" with Beijing, perhaps to replace the term "systematic challenges", it highlighted some shifts in the gesture towards China amid the Indo-Pacific tilt. The situation remains precarious, constantly wavering between opportunities and the risks involved. Playing both sides has long been a strategy in UK foreign policy towards China. Yet, circumstances may evolve, raising the question of whether Xi's statements are just diplomatic speech or blurred realities. "As the second-largest economy in the world and our fourth-largest trading partner, not engaging is simply not an option," Rachel Reeves said at the parliament after she visited China.

The dilemma regarding human rights and cyberattacks should be balanced with climate change and trade considerations while acknowledging the uncertain future of security. Although the statements made between countries reveal differences, they also open up opportunities for discussion and their willingness to engage. The UK's approach to China is set to change, potentially quite swiftly, with Trump 2.0 already signaling its intentions.

However, China seems ready to play strategic cards to challenge the UK over its statements, while the UK struggles with the dilemma of maintaining friendly relations with both sides and gaining benefits without incurring excessive risk from Trump effect. With Marco Rubio now in the role of Secretary of State, this area has become increasingly complex to navigate.

What Next for Special Relationship

The next step in the special relationship would be predominantly influenced by the US, while the UK would have its own flexibility and revitalised approach. Trump may not regard ASEAN as central to this region. Unlike under Joe Biden, the Indo-Pacific would be where the US needed to concentrate on China, transforming it into an arena for the West, with Washington and its partners striving to prevail. Yet under Trump, things would consistently remain on US commitment towards being a world power, but not towards establishing a world order.

Some analysts suggest that Trump's policy could impede the strengthening of the Indo-Pacific network. In this context, the UK may need to seek closer relationships with neighboring EU countries.

America First conveys a clear political message to US allies and partners, urging them to take responsibility for global efforts regarding their policies and the fundamental principles that shaped the post-World War international order.

The special relationship remains unique, but at what cost? Who can say?

The opinions shared by the contributors and in this article are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of the institution.

Vanndasambath Chhuon is the General Coordinator of the ASEAN-UK Young Leaders Initiative and the Deputy Director of the Cambodian Center for Regional Studies, a foreign policy think tank based in Phnom Penh.

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